Future Internet Trends
by Stafford "Doc" Williamson
as presented to IEEE Symposium on Assessment of Software Tools,
Toronto, Canada, May 24, 1996, panel discussion "Internet Tools":
** Please note this is a "reproduction" from memory, with perhaps some "author's license" to add or delete a word or paragraph here. Any pounds which may appear to have been removed from my waist are entirely coincidental to this editorial process. Any silvering of the tongue, is intentional.
Good morning. I am Doc Williamson, and as stated in that gracious introduction, I sometimes work for Quarterdeck, who pay a good portion of my income, but I am also an independent consultant, and since Quarterdeck did not pay any of my expenses to be here today, I am speaking to you in that capacity.
Introduction
This is not a reproduction of the "position paper" I submitted to be included in the official "proceedings" [of IEEE SAST '96], you can read that as it is, and may or may not find it interesting. I am here today to talk about my announced subject, "Future Trends on the Internet".
and I hope you find that more stimulating.
As they say, "ripped from today's headlines" (or Help Wanted ads in this case).
[some chuckles from the audience]
Let's see what this has to say about the future of the internet. Hmmm, "Wanted Software engineer ...requires C, knowledge of communications protocols, ..." Ahhh, not what I was looking for, how about ... Here's another one from [Company name deleted] "California Gold" it says. "Software engineer ... must know Internet programming languages [sic] HTML, CGI, java, etc." Here's another, "Software developer, must know C, communications, CGI, HTML, java ...." Oh, yes, I'll leave these here b y the podium in case anyone is looking for a job.
[smattering of chuckles from the audience]
Oh, yes, I did want to explain to you the title of my official article, which was something like, "If Tomorrow is Yesterday, This Must Be Toronto". My point in that title is illustrated by those ads. Whatever is going tohappen "tomorrow" or in the short term future of the internet has ALREADY happened. It has been determined, and those ads for programmers are for the people who are going to build what was already decided yesterday. So, where is the Internet, really ... ?
In Flight
[Holding up May issue of "Hemispheres" magazine] (cover pictured here)
One answer is, "It's up in the air." This is Hemispheres, the inflight magazine from United Airlines that I was reading as I flew here a few days ago. One of the most prominently featured articles is entitled, "The Spin on Designing a Web Site" by Sanjay Khana, a writer who lives in Vancouver, Canada by the way. And this article talks about QuickTime, Java, and Shockwave. What's remarkable about this is that it was in a general interest magazine for travellers. The Internet is everwhere
we look. You've seen the URLs in television ads. Everybody's got one.
Interestingly, right next to that article in the inflight magazine, was this ad for Silicon Graphics, which was also, by the way, in an equivalent form in the inflight video, advertising Silicon Graphics machines capabilities, expecially the built in ISDN video capabilities for collaborative work, like remote medical diagnosis. With this ad you can send in for a free video of the uses they have for the SGI machines.
Speak Up
And that brings me to my next topic, in the 'it's already happened' category. From Web Techniques magazine, here is a review of several of the so-called "Internet Telephone" programs. Actually these have come to be known as "Voice-on-the-Net" products. You will notice which product (Quarterdeck Webtalk) has been rated highest in this magazine review. But this will become more ubiquitous as time goes on.
All right, let me acknowledge that there has be a coalition formed among some of the long distance telephone carriers to petition the FCC [Federal Communications Commission] in the United States that, "We're being regulated on tarrifs, you've got to apply the same regulations to these software companies who are making software that allows people to make long distance phone calls on the Internet." I do want you to note, however that our friends at AT&T and Sprint and MCI did not join in this co alition which was called ACTA (though I forget what the acronym stands for, something like 'American Communitations and Telephone Alliance'). I think you can be reasonably sure that AT&T and the others have found a way to make money off of this, and are in no hurry to pile regulations on it.
In spite of the public perception that these software programs are "internet telephones" they are really just the first step in "collaborative computing environments." Quarterdeck has already announced agreement in principle to acquire FutureLabs whose product TalkShow will be incorporated into the next generation of WebTalk so that not only will you be able to talk to the other person but also share "whiteboard snapshots" or even whole based applications. (It may currently be limited to OLE application s, I'm not sure about that) And beyond that, a further generation is very likely to take us to video over the net. There are already several products that do this now. And all of this will be possible (like with Talk Show) to be true conferencing of multiple parties.
He said WORLD WIDE Web, and he meant it!
Oh, yes, and here's another feature that you should be aware of. Long before Netscape or any others came out with foreign language versions of their Web browsers, students had come up with a workaround for the fact that HTML was only defined for ISO-Latin1 fonts, and made available browsers that would work in Japanese and Chinese character sets. But here's another product, "Internet with an Accent" shown here in Web Techniques magazine, that indicates the need to broaden your horizons, from ASCII base d to Unicode based to handle all the non-ISO-Latin1 based languages. Be ready for that.
WHOSE LAWS ? and VRML
Okay, here's another "it's already happened" but watch for this to predominate ... Virtual Vegas. This article represents two major things. First that local gambling regulations will be virtually impossible to enforce. Who's laws apply? The laws where the browser user is? Or the laws where the server is running? Or some other laws. But just as important this is also a VRML experimental site. That is, there is a 3 dimensional representation of reality on the screen. No more flat pages. This is a "metaphor" a "representation" of reality that the average consumer can understand. A store LOOKS like a store. A Bank LOOKS like a bank, and a mall looks like a mall. It might actually be some local mall, making it REALLY familiar to the user, or it could be some virtual "supermall" that exists only as a collection of storefronts on the Internet. But the consumer can send an "avatar" (a digital representation of themselves) to "try on" clothes at these stores. Indeed, with a full digital representat ion of yourself delievered to the clothing manufacturer, all your clothes can be custom-made as needed, but of course, your privacy would be protected, so you would not automatically ENTER a store with your measurements 'exposed'. You have given out your measurements only when you choose to do so.
VIRTUAL VEGAS Netscape is now offering something they call 3Dlive as a VRML plug-in for their browser, but actually this was first developed as an inline viewer for Quarterdeck's Qmosaic called WebFX, several months before Netscape bought the company (Paper Software) that created it.
How Big's Your Pipe?
Now of course all of this takes network bandwidth. Where's it all going to come from? I think we don't need to worry too much about that. I am pretty sure that the folks at TCI and our friends at AT&T and others are workng very hard to make sure those limitations go away as soon as possible. TCI has promised "[optical]fibre to the neighborhood" in every community they serve by the end of 1997.
Surf's Up on the ElectroMagnetic Spectrum
I said before that the Internet was 'in the air' meaning that it was in mainstream consumer magazine reading material of that inflight magazine, and that is a fairly significant fact. But this ...
[Holds up a small 7cm. by 12cm television set, extending the monopole antenna](pictured here)
Is the future of the Internet.
Okay, this is not really a prototype of a "Net Computer" [the basic outline of a 'net computer' from IBM, Intel and others was reportedly announced on Monday, May 20, 1996] but I did want you to be aware that there is now something called "National Data Network, which proposes to provide wireless Internet connections and high data rates. They currently use 2.1 to 2.7 gigahertz in 6 megahertz chunks to deliever 10 megabit bandwidth. That's full Ethernet speed. And they claim that although they you are on a "land line" back channel at the moment that they will have two way wireless by the end of the year.
I am sure you've seen the ads for DirecTV ... ? Our friends at Nortel [several Nortel employees were attending the conference] or their friends at Hughes have that direct satellite downlink capability already, again on a land line back channel, but impressive data rates on the downlink. That's called Direc ... PC. Direct with no letter "T" in it. Misspelling it that made it a lot harder to find information on it than I expected but it is there, on the Internet
So where are we going with the Internet. Here ...
Okay, not exactly. Actually we have had wrist sized televisions for several years now, so maybe THIS is where we are going with the Internet.
[Holding up watch on his own wrist]
By the way, that slide is of this watch, which really is a Microsoft/Timex watch that has uploadable calendars, appointment and address books, so it really is a computer on my wrist, right now.
Hearing Aid with WorldWide Range
Okay, those wrist TV's are pretty small for text applications, except that we won't have to worry too much about screen resolution. The main function of the wrist portion will be to act as a digitizer for your voice, that will send it on to your desktop computer for voice recognition functions (possibly using something in your pocket the size of this little telelvision as a transmitter and receiver to give you a reasonable range). But you won't have to READ the response, it will be spoken to you in a little cordless earpiece, no larger than a hearing aid.
Actually such devices already exist that contain both speaker and microphone, and Quarterdeck may include them in the next generation of WebTalk, although those ones have cords to them.
What does all this have to do with "software tools?" Well the point is that everything is changing so rapidly, that the primary characteristic to look for in software tools is, adaptability.
Thank you. That's my presentation for today.
[After a pause, during Q&A session]]
Oh, yes, I forgot this image during the rest of my presentation. Interestingly , it comes from the same inflight magazine, the next page after the article on Web Sites. This is a device called the "Pilot" from US Robotics, one of the most successful modem makers.
But it's not just a PDA, it also comes with a with an optional modem, and the other thing that makes this interesting is that Hayes (one of US Robotics main competitors) has made a deal to bundle Quarterdeck's WebTalk with their modems. Bandwidth demand is going up and "voice-on-the-net" is going to be everywhere soon.
POSTSCRIPTS:
1. Immediately after the presentation, Dr. Morven Gentleman of the Canadian National Research Council, informed me that a Canadian coalition similar to ACTA had formed in Canada, to make equivalent complaints to the Canadian Radio and Television Commission. Dr. Gentleman also indicated that as in the US, the three largest long distance carriers did NOT align themselves with this coalition either.
2.a) A gentleman from Nokia (of Finland) named Mikko Tarkiainen also pointed me toward the Nokia 9000, which is a combination cellular phone, fax and email device and also contains a WWW browser, the product can be seen on the web at http://www.nokia.com/com9000/n9000.html
2.b) I have since learned that General Magic, makers of the "MagicCap" operating system for PDAs (used in the Sony PDA) have purchased Presto!Links browser and Presto!Mail 1.5 from Active paper in Austin, Texas for use on "MagicCap" machines. Reportedly WWW browssers are relatively rare on "handhelds" according to Diana Hwang, quoted in the magazine Information Week, May 6th, 1996, page 38.
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